Fall Forecast: Predictions for the fall market

It's a topic that's on everyone's mind and a question I've been asked dozens of times over the past few weeks; with news headlines of a summertime slowdown in the real estate market, what will the fall bring? Will the sales continue to decline or, with the changing colors of the season, will fall see the return of the vibrant market we had earlier this year?

I would love to pull out my trusty real estate crystal ball and have the exact answers as to what the next few months in real estate will look like; but no one can predict the future. I can however provide some perspective and thoughts on what I believe may happen over the next few months.

Summer is always a slower real estate season, but this summer we’ve seen an even greater decrease in our overall sales volumes compared to prior summers, specifically July and August were down by about 30% compared to the same time last year. 

There is a lot of speculation about just what exactly brought that change in our market. Was it a) increasing interest rates, b) mortgage changes, or c) buyer fatigue? The answer is probably d) All of the above. Buyers no doubt, and understandably, had grown weary of the competitive marketplace that made offers a lottery and saw bidding wars price many out of the market. Many buyers had to bring unconditional offers in order to be the winning bidder, which made even the successful buyers feel pressured and uneasy about the deal. As such many buyers have taken a pause to ride things about and see where the market takes us.

July saw Northumberland return to the first balanced market we’ve seen in some time and August reflects a similar story with 58% of homes that go to market, selling. Now although sales are most certainly down, the values of homes selling are remaining strong having increased 16.2% over the same period of time last year. 

So what does all this mean for the fall? My perspective is that we will see an increase in the number of buyers coming back to the market, and more opportunity to negotiate purchase prices under reasonable conditions. I don’t believe we will see significant declines in sales or values. The slowdown in activity we have seen this summer has been the all the “correction” the market needed.

Moving forward, I believe we will continue to see a balanced market where homes that are priced and marketed effectively, will sell.

For more information on the Northumberland Real Estate Market you can contact me anytime at 905-375-0062 or pennington.remax@gmail.com